Outlook: What will happen to India if Russia invades Ukraine?

The United States of America (USA) said on Wednesday that it expects India, a traditional Russian ally, to stand by its side if the Kremlin invades Ukraine, which that the Biden administration considers "inevitable."

Outlook: What will happen to India if Russia invades Ukraine?

Speaking to reporters, State Department spokesman Ned Price said tensions between Ukraine and Russia were also discussed at the recently concluded Quad meeting in Melbourne.

The quadruple meeting brought together the Minister of Foreign Affairs (EAM), Dr S Jaishankar, as well as the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Australia, Japan and the United States.

During the meeting, the four leaders stressed the need to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis, Price said.

“One of the main proponents of the Quad is that the strengthening of the rules-based international order. And that is a rules-based order that applies just as much in the Indo-Pacific as it does in Europe, as anywhere else. We know our Indian partners are committed to this rules-based international order. There are a number of principles in this order. One of them is that borders cannot be forcibly redrawn,” Price said.

"That big countries cannot bully small countries. That only the people of a particular country can be able to choose their foreign policy, their associations, their alliances, their partnerships. These are principles that also apply in the Indo-Pacific like they do in Europe," he said.

India has a Russia traditional ally and the two nations enjoy strong diplomatic relations. Moscow has always backed New Delhi on most international platforms, including the Jammu and Kashmir issue at the United Nations (UN).

However, India's leaning towards the United States has upset Russia a bit, experts say. India, since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, has signed several trade and defense agreements with the United States, making it clear that New Delhi is heading towards Washington.

However, in October 2018, India signed a $5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defense missile systems, despite a direct warning from the Trump administration. In 2019, India made the first payment of around $800 million to Russia.

In December last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin also visited India and met Prime Minister Modi. After the meeting, the Indian Prime Minister said that the ties between India and Russia are stronger than ever.

"You (Putin) should be given credit for the strategic partnership between our countries over the past 3 decades," Prime Minister Modi said.

Meanwhile, Putin said Russia views India as "a great power" and a "proven friend", adding that relations between the two nations are growing. He further stated that he was "happy to travel to India".

"Currently, mutual investments amount to about 38 million, with a little more investment from the Russian side. We cooperate a lot in the military and technical field like no other country. We develop high technology together as well as produce in India,” he said.

Ahead of Putin's meeting, India and Russia also held the first 2+2 ministerial talks between the two countries and signed several agreements. The 2+2 talks at ministerial level, experts said, were a balancing act between Russia and the United States.

So what if Russia invades Ukraine?

If Russia invades Ukraine, it would be difficult for India to balance things between Washington and Russia. India has always opposed China's aggressive stance in the Indo-Pacific and Russia's approach in Ukraine could be described as similar.

It should be noted that India wants Russia to be on its side on international platforms that also include China and its statement that it is "closely monitoring the developments on Ukraine" is a delicate balancing act between Moscow and Washington.

New Delhi's "monitoring" assurances and call for a peaceful resolution have kept their balance under realistic control.

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